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A tale of Two cities - The May jobs report looks good on the surface, but is showing tremendous signs of cracking and weakness - 6/7/24

๐Ÿ”” BREAKING - JOBS REPORT for MAY 2024 ๐Ÿ”” 6/7/24

Data is from Peter Boockvar (behind a paywall), interpretations are my own opinion:

According to the Department of Labor, 272k jobs were created in May. This number is a shot in the dark, as these numbers are continually revised as the data is scrubbed. Let's peel back The Onion:

๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿป Out of that 272k number, the birth/ death model contributed 231k of those job gains.

๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿป The unemployment increased to 4% due to an estimated 250k individuals dropping out of the labor force.

๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿป The ADP household survey said 408k jobs were lost.

๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿป Notable that jobs for ages 20 to 24 cohort dropped a whopping 474k, ages 25 to 54 saw gains of 87k and the 55+ ages saw a drop of 31k

So what do you make of the discrepancies in the data?

Basically, the jobs number looks better because more people are dying, more people are disabled, and younger adults between graduating high school and graduating college are finding this to be quite a challenging job market given their limited skill sets.

The root cause could stem from the COVID mRNA vaccines continuing to destroy immune systems. And ADP's numbers are a leading indicator, meaning that data is telling you more likely than not what the Government's "revised" data could look like over the next few months.



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